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Abstract

History has warned the world of the grave consequences of territorial disputes between neighboring states. The turn of the early 2020s has been no different. As the war between Ukraine and Russia persists, the South China Sea territorial and maritime conflict is gradually reemerging after a lull. Despite an international arbitral tribunal ruling against China in 2016 (the Award), the situation in the South China Sea remains in a gridlock years later. Minimal progress has been made toward a lasting, peaceful resolution or a stable, rules-based regional order. The realization of any joint security agreement remains elusive, especially as China, in defiance of the tribunal’s decision, has promulgated domestic legislations that contravene the core tenets of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)—a convention to which China is a signatory. Conversely, the United States and its allies have firmly embraced the legal determinations of the Award and increased their support for regional claimants within the Indo-Pacific.

Efforts by intergovernmental organizations and individual nations to address Russia’s actions in Ukraine have proven largely ineffective. A new proxy war, pitting Eastern and Western coalitions against one another, is emerging—carrying with it perilous risks and uncertainties. Given the shifts in global supply chains, changes in governmental administrations, and heightened tensions in the Taiwan Strait, this Comment explores the imminent threats to the security equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific. With the challenges facing the existing frameworks of the UNCLOS in mind, this Comment examines the dynamics of geopolitical spheres of influence considering the tug-of-war between global superpowers. Additionally, this Comment examines the limitations in enforcing the Award and highlights the shortcomings of the strategic ambiguities exhibited by the U.N., the U.S., and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations compared to China’s assertive stance. Finally, this Comment proposes policy objectives that could foster peace, stability, and economic connectedness within the contested waterways.

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